Fixing the Central Parity and the Evolution of the Currency within the Exchange Rate Mechanism II in the Countries that Joined the Euro Zone

Abstract

The present paper aims to briefly present the models used by the countries that joined the Euro zone after 2000, in fixing the central parity and the evolution of the local currency towards Euro, when participating in Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). In this respect, the paper intends to synthesize the main theories for determining the equilibrium exchange rate, as well as to present the modality of putting them into practice in the countries that had already become members of the Euro zone. The better we know the other countries’ experience in the respect of the joining process to the Euro zone, the better will Romania be able to prepare itself for adopting the unique European currency. Thus, we will be synthesize the main approaches within the specialized literature and also in the economic policy deciders’ practice concerning the estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate and implicitly, of the central parity. The paper presents the modality of fixing the central parity and the experience of participating in ERM II for a number of member states that joined the Euro zone after 2000: Greece, Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus and Estonia. For these states, we will analyze both the evolution of the currency towards Euro while participating in ERM II. Starting from these concrete examples, we will explain the advantages and the disadvantages in fixing the central parity over/at/under the value of the exchange rate on the market at the moment of joining to ERM II and we will underline the problems that might occur in the case of choosing a central parity that is not compatible with the equilibrium value of the exchange rate.